Shiny Drop Rate Pokemon Go

This article is the second in a three-part series where the Silph Research Group's findings on shiny rates in Pokémon GO are consolidated. In the outset part of this series, we examined shiny rates for boosted wild Pokémon encounters and identified three unremarkably-used boosted rates. Here are the highlights from the first article:

The Community Day rate is used (you lot guessed it!) during the monthly Community Solar day issue. Our 95% confidence interval (CI) for this rate is 24.four to 25.1 encounters per shiny.
The "Permaboost" rate is used for at least a dozen Pokémon that can be found in the wild and whose shiny charge per unit appears to be permanently much higher than the usual rate. Our 95% CI for this rate is 56 to 65 encounters per shiny.
The "Medium Event" rate is often used for Pokémon with significantly boosted spawns during events such equally worldwide Get Fest and Safari Zone-related events. Our 95% CI for this rate is 126 to 141 encounters per shiny.

In this installment, we take a wait at shiny rates for other encounter types: Raids, Eggs, and Field Research. Be forewarned — while there is strong bear witness for many of the rates we'll expect at, other parts of this article may lead to more questions than answers!

Legendary Raids

Our Researchers have participated in more than 40,000 shiny-eligible Legendary Raids (not including special iii-hour Raid events) and encountered more than two,000 shinies, finding a shiny rate of

1 in 19.4

with a 95% CI of 18.6 to 20.2 encounters per shiny. This rate has been highly consistent across species.

Species	Seen	Shiny	Rate
Cresselia	5,235	237	1 in 22.one
Giratina (Contradistinct)	947	44	i in 21.5
Groudon	two,755	158	1 in 17.4
Heatran	ane,062	57	1 in 18.6
Ho-Oh	4,974	256	1 in 19.4
Kyogre	7,661	381	i in 20.i
Latias	1,902	106	1 in 17.9
Latios	2,125	109	1 in 19.5
Lugia	4,245	220	1 in 19.3
Mewtwo	2,410	134	1 in 18.0
Rayquaza	v,544	306	1 in eighteen.i
Regice	714	35	1 in twenty.iv
Regirock	634	35	1 in eighteen.ane
Registeel	819	40	1 in twenty.four
Total	41,027	2,118	1 in 19.iv

Missing from this table are the Kanto birds and Johto beasts because data drove for those species has been entirely during their special three-hour Raid events. Which brings us to…

Three-Hr Raid Events

Niantic has held a series of 11 special three-hour Raid events, including one for each of the Legendary birds and beasts, as well as Gengar, Lapras, Lickitung, and the Kanto starter lines. Excluding the offset of these events (the July 2018 Articuno Day, which appears to have had a separate, lower rate), our Researchers take constitute a shiny rate for these events of

1 in 10.5

with a 95% CI of 10.2 to 10.9 encounters per shiny. This rate has once again been highly consistent beyond special Raid events from Zapdos Day onwards.

Species	Seen	Shiny	Charge per unit
Zapdos	5,071	452	1 in 11.2
Moltres	iv,368	411	1 in 10.6
Raikou	4,017	375	one in 10.7
Entei	four,260	392	one in x.9
Suicune	3,369	352	1 in nine.vi
Gengar	3,041	303	1 in ten.0
Lapras	3,763	361	1 in 10.iv
Kanto Starters	1,872	173	1 in 10.eight
Lickitung	one,355	141	ane in 9.6
Gengar/Nidorino	943	92	i in 10.3
Full	32,059	3,052	1 in ten.v

On Articuno Day, in contrast, our Researchers found 194 shinies in three,611 encounters, for a rate of ane in 18.6 (95% CI of 16.3 to 21.5 encounters per shiny).

Other Raid and Egg Exclusives

A number of other Pokémon have been bachelor in Pokémon GO exclusively (or well-nigh exclusively¹) as Raid bosses and by hatching Eggs. These include:

Baby Pokémon (in Eggs)
Certain Alolan forms, including Grimer, Meowth, Sandshrew, and Vulpix (in Eggs) plus, Marowak and Raichu (in Raids)
Absol, Klink, Mawile, and Shinx (in both Raids and Eggs)

In this category we also include Kanto Regionals from their release event, during which they were available in Eggs worldwide. These rates practice not employ to wild Kanto Regionals found later on the event.

Our data for these Pokémon do not signal definitively to a single, consistent shiny rate. For each of the above categories taken in aggregate, here is what our Researchers plant (data broken down by species can be found in the appendix):

Category	Seen	Shiny	Rate	95% CI low	95% CI high
Babies	24,240	416	one in 58	1 in 64	i in 53
Alolans (Egg-Only)	three,598	lxx	1 in 51	1 in 66	1 in 41
Alolans (Raid-Merely)	ii,276	46	ane in 49	one in 67	ane in 38
Absol/Klink/Mawile/Shinx	10,697	208	1 in 51	1 in 58	1 in 45
Kanto Regionals effect	5,623	123	ane in 46	1 in 55	1 in 39

Combining the five categories together yields 878 shinies in 47,087 encounters, for a rate of 1 in 54 (with a 95% CI of 50 to 57 encounters per shiny). Aggregating should be done with caution here because the data does not definitively support the hypothesis that these Pokémon all have the aforementioned shiny rate.

The preceding table combines data from several different Research Group projects, including our regular shiny-tracking project, several Task Forces, and our ongoing project tracking the distribution of the Pokémon GO Egg puddle. One hitting observation is that data from the Egg hatching project consistently yields slightly more conservative shiny rates than the other projects do.

Category	Project	Seen	Shiny	Rate
Absol, Klink, Mawile, Shinx	Egg Pool	ii,420	41	1 in 59
Absol, Klink, Mawile, Shinx	Other	viii,930	182	1 in 49
Kanto Regionals	Egg Pool	1,089	sixteen	1 in 68
Kanto Regionals	Other	four,534	107	1 in 42

In addition, nearly all of the data on Babe Pokémon comes from the Egg pool project. There are several good reasons to suspect that data from the Egg pool project might be more accurate than data from other projects. Ane is that Eggs are generally easier to track than wild encounters; at that place are no issues with fleeing, shiny-checking, dissimilar forms, or GO+ usage, for example. Additionally, since the principal purpose of the Egg projection is to track the distribution of species in the Egg puddle rather than to track shiny rates, this project may be less susceptible than others to reporting bias. Alternatively, there is the potential for Researchers to forget to note that some hatches were shiny, leading to the opposite bias. Finally, data submission for the Egg pool project is restricted to more veteran researchers.

What can we make of all this? The simplest hypothesis is that all of these Pokémon do, in fact, share the same shiny rate. If the Egg pool data is indeed more than accurate than other data, then this rate may even be the same as the Permaboost rate. More than complicated hypotheses could involve different shiny rates for different categories, some tweaking to the shiny rate over time, slightly unlike shiny rates for different encounter types, or perhaps even some variability within the categories. For example, our observed shiny rate for Bonsly is much higher than that of other baby Pokémon, although with substantial data on 11 unlike baby Pokémon, it's not necessarily surprising that nosotros might see an outlier. (We take too little information on Happiny, Mime Jr., and Riolu to depict any conclusions about them.) Similarly, it remains possible that the shiny rate for Klink might exist higher than that of Absol, Mawile, and Shinx.

Limited Research Events

Niantic has held iv iii-hr Limited Enquiry events, featuring Feebas, Clamperl, Lotad, and almost recently Minccino. Notoriously, the shiny rate for Feebas was changed from roughly 1 in forty to roughly 1 in twenty after negative feedback from trainers in Europe, the Centre East, Africa, and India. In the iii subsequent events, our Researchers recorded the following observations:

Species	Seen	Shiny	Rate	95% CI low	95% CI loftier
Clamperl	6,832	726	1 in 9.4	1 in ten.1	1 in 8.8
Lotad	viii,298	411	1 in 20.2	1 in 22.2	one in 18.4
Minccino	v,106	527	one in 9.7	1 in 10.v	1 in 9.0

Given what nosotros understand about the way that shiny rates are re-used, we recall it's likely that the shiny rates for Clamperl and Minccino were the same as the Raid Day rate, while Lotad nearly likely used the Legendary Raid rate.

The Lotad result also coincided with the release of shiny Normal Castform. Our Researchers encountered 12,934 Normal Castform during the outcome, of which 829 were shiny; this is a rate of ane in xv.6, with a 95% CI of xiv.vi to 16.7 encounters per shiny.

Rates With Limited Data

We shut by listing shiny rates in several boosted categories which either are unique (e.g. Meltan, Spinda) and/or for which nosotros take data that is besides express to depict any pregnant conclusions.

The Costumed Egg/Raid category includes the Halloween 2019 costumed Kanto starters, every bit well equally Stantler with bells and the more contempo Raticate, Wobbuffet, and Wurmple with party hats. Our information for each of these species individually is too limited to describe any conclusions about whether they are all actually at the aforementioned rate.

Gyarados data is from the 2020 Lunar New year event, and Chansey data is from Valentine's Day 2020 (its shiny release event).

Category	Seen	Shiny	Charge per unit	95% CI depression	95% CI high
Costumed Egg/Raid	ane,747	42	i in 42	1 in 58	i in 31
Spinda	801	17	1 in 47	1 in 81	1 in 31
Meltan	11,460	199	1 in 58	1 in 66	1 in l
Shadow Pokémon	one,318	13	1 in 101	1 in 190	1 in 63
Gyarados	656	17	i in 39	1 in 66	i in 25
Chansey release	1,223	5	1 in 245	1 in 752	one in 120

Summary

Our review of Raid, Egg, and other shiny data reveals that Niantic has used a consequent shiny rate of approximately one in 20 for Legendary Raids, and approximately one in 10 for three-hr Raid events. Three-hour Limited Research events have used both of these rates.

The picture is less articulate-cut for Raid/Egg-exclusive Pokémon. Infant Pokémon announced — at least for the nigh part — to use a charge per unit of approximately 1 in 58 (with a 95% conviction interval of 53 to 64 encounters per shiny). This rate may very well be the same as the Permaboost charge per unit used by at to the lowest degree a dozen species (such as Sneasel) with shiny rates permanently higher than the base of operations rate. Our observed rates for other Raid/Egg exclusive Pokémon, such as Absol, Mawile, Shinx, and various Alolans are college; but whether this is because their shiny rates are actually higher, or due to bias and/or luck in data collection, remains a key unanswered question.

Finally, our data for sure other see types (such every bit Spinda in Field Research and Shadow Pokémon from Squad Rocket leader battles) is sufficient to conclude that their shiny rates are higher than the base rate, but likewise preliminary to categorize their rates precisely.

We hope this information aids you in your chase for shiny Pokémon. Go on an eye out for the third and terminal installment in the coming weeks!

Appendix 1 — Detailed Raid/Egg-exclusive information

Infant Pokémon	Seen	Shiny	Rate	95% CI low	95% CI high
Azurill	ii,150	31	1 in 69	1 in 102	ane in 50
Bonsly	988	27	ane in 37	1 in 55	1 in 26
Budew	ii,129	34	one in 63	one in 90	1 in 46
Cleffa	1,760	22	1 in 80	1 in 127	one in 55
Elekid	ii,133	42	1 in 51	one in 70	i in 38
Happiny	twenty	1	ane in twenty	1 in 751	1 in 6
Igglybuff	1,509	22	i in 69	1 in 109	one in 47
Magby	2,489	42	ane in 59	i in 82	1 in 45
Mime Jr.	112	4	1 in 28	1 in 101	i in 13
Pichu	3,785	61	1 in 62	1 in 81	1 in 49
Riolu	231	3	ane in 77	1 in 371	1 in 32
Smoochum	i,711	28	i in 61	i in 92	i in 44
Togepi	2,743	52	i in 53	ane in 70	i in 41
Wynaut	ii,480	47	ane in 53	1 in 72	one in 41
All	24,240	416	1 in 58	1 in 64	1 in 53

Egg Alolans	Seen	Shiny	Rate	95% CI low	95% CI high
Alolan Grimer	965	12	one in 80	i in 155	ane in 49
Alolan Meowth	878	25	1 in 35	1 in 54	one in 25
Alolan Sandshrew	957	14	1 in 68	1 in 125	1 in 43
Alolan Vulpix	798	nineteen	1 in 42	1 in 69	one in 28
All	3,598	70	ane in 51	1 in 66	1 in 41

Raid Alolans	Seen	Shiny	Rate	95% CI low	95% CI high
Alolan Marowak	ane,071	20	1 in 54	1 in 87	1 in 36
Alolan Raichu	ane,205	26	i in 46	1 in 71	one in 33
All	2,276	46	1 in 49	1 in 67	1 in 38

Other Raid/Egg	Seen	Shiny	Rate	95% CI low	95% CI loftier
Absol	three,573	68	1 in 53	ane in 68	1 in 42
Klink	653	15	i in 44	ane in 77	1 in 28
Mawile	3,051	57	1 in 54	1 in seventy	1 in 42
Shinx	four,073	83	ane in 49	1 in 61	i in forty
All	11,350	220	1 in 51	1 in 58	1 in 45

Kanto Regionals Event	Seen	Shiny	Charge per unit	95% CI high	95% CI low
Farfetch'd	684	10	1 in 68	1 in 142	ane in forty
Kangaskhan	1,075	25	one in 43	1 in 66	i in 30
Mr. Mime	ane,808	47	1 in 38	one in 52	1 in 30
Tauros	2,056	41	i in 50	i in 70	one in 38
All	5,623	123	ane in 46	1 in 55	1 in 39

Appendix ii — Footnotes

¹ Absol, Alolan Meowth and Vulpix have also been available in quests, and Absol, Mawile, and Alolan Sandshrew and Vulpix had express wild availability during an consequence.